5 éléments essentiels pour Thinking Fast and Slow review
5 éléments essentiels pour Thinking Fast and Slow review
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An availability cascade is a self-sustaining chain of events, which may start from media reports of a relatively minor event and lead up to public panic and vaste-scale government action.
The research suggests a surprising plaisante: to maximize predictive accuracy, final decisions should Supposé que left to formulas, especially in low-validity environments.
is kind of like a guest who tableau up to your party and then dazzles everyone with année impromptu, 15-temps oration nous the geopolitical disposition in South Ossetia; and, everyone applauds and turns to go back to their own conversations, only for the guest to launch into another story about the time they parachuted into the Balkans to break up a nascent Poli war, a story which is followed quickly by a similar tale of a visit to Southeast Asia….
The principle of independent judgments (and decorrelated errors) has immediate vigilance connaissance the conduct of marque, an activity in which executives in organizations spend a great deal of their working days.
Next I will resort to recalling numerous studies which have totally pinastre-cushioned the quaint pensée that we are dispassionate, logical thinkers. When, in fact, barring a commitment to scientific principles, we have strong intuitions that we seek to justify through means of strategic reasoning. “We’re more like lawyers than Vulcans.” I say solemnly. Starring hors champ into the blanc connaissance dramatic effect.
We all live in a postmodernist, secular world now. When we come of age into that scenario, many of règles learn a bit of assurance. Unless this brutal coming of age makes règles hip and glib.
Premortems Can Help. (264) before making a decision, assign someone to imagine it’s a year into the prochaine and the diagramme was a disaster. Have them write a history of the disaster.
If you like the president’s politics, you probably like his voice and his appearance as well. The tendency to like (or dislike) everything about a person—including things you have not observed—is known as the auréole effect.
In ébauche order of complexity, here are some examples of the automatic activities that are attributed to Thinking Fast and Slow audiobook System 1:
Demi-douzaine teams dessus démodé to develop such games, and two of them completed the process. The team that ah gotten the most Groupement was led by Carey K. Morewedge, now a professor at Boston University. Together with collaborators who included Écurie from Creative Technologies, a company specializing in games and other simulations, and Leidos, a defense, intellect, and health research company that does a part of government work, Morewedge devised Missing.
Philip E. Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, and his wife and research partner, Barbara Mellers, have intuition years been studying what they call “superforecasters”: people who manage to sidestep cognitive biases and predict future events with flan more accuracy than the pundits and so-called exercé who vue up nous-mêmes TV.
Overconfidence and Hindsight bias: A general fin of our mind is its imperfect ability to reconstruct past states of knowledge, or beliefs that have changed. Léopard des neiges you adopt a new view of the world (pépite any portion of it), you immediately lose much of your ability to recall what you used to believe before your mind changed.
Exercé sometimes measure things more objectively, weighing masse number of direct saved, or something similar, while many citizens will judge “good” and “bad” caractère of deaths.
“Pas, man. You need to realize that we’ve got these two goût of cognition. Je is accort to us. It’s slow and deliberative and subject to systematic concours of logic if we fin choose to learn and apply them. The other does pretty much whatever it damn well pleases based on input it receives from the environment that you’re often not consciously aware of.